Championship · Matchweek 4

Burnley FC vs Middlesbrough FC Prediction

United Matchday prediction

Burnley FC win35%
Draw25%
Middlesbrough FC win40%
Predicted score
1–1
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Under 2.5 goals
46%
BTTS yes
57%
Over 1.5 goals
77%
Over 3.5 goals
31%
BTTS no
43%
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.47

Low confidence

Why the model favours this outcome

Middlesbrough FC's travelling attack has outperformed the competition average. Statistically the two sides are closely matched, so the draw probability stays comparatively high. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.

Most likely scorelines

  • 1111.8%
  • 018.7%
  • 128.7%
  • 108.0%
  • 218.0%
  • 026.4%
  • 005.9%
  • 225.9%

Model transparency

Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 13 August 2026
Last updated: 13 August 2026
Status: Live

How predictions work

Prediction record

No graded predictions yet — accuracy is published as soon as matches are settled.

Related predictions

Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.