Premier League
AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest FC
Home
62%
Draw
21%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 52%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League · Matchweek 5
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Arsenal FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Premier League
- Round
- Matchweek 5
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
Brighton & Hove Albion FC win32%
Draw25%
Arsenal FC win43%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- BTTS yes
- 58%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 78%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 32%
- BTTS no
- 42%
- Expected goals
- 1.31 – 1.55
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Home scoring numbers favour Brighton & Hove Albion FC, who have created goals at an above-average rate in front of their own crowd. Arsenal FC have defended well on the road, conceding less often than the average travelling side. Brighton & Hove Albion FC's home defensive record is tighter than the competition average, which suppresses the away goal expectation. Arsenal FC arrive in stronger recent form, which the model weights alongside season-long numbers.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–17.6%
- 1–07.5%
- 0–26.9%
- 2–25.9%
- 0–05.7%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Brighton & Hove Albion FC | Arsenal FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 2.20 | 2.70 |
| Goals per match | 2.60 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| Home / away goals scored | 15 | 5 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 1 | 3 |
| Last 5 points | 12 | 15 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 10 | 7 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 2 | 1 |
| Win percentage | 70% | 90% |
Brighton & Hove Albion FC recent form
WWLWW
Arsenal FC recent form
WWWWW
Recent form
Brighton & Hove Albion FC
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 13 scored, 8 conceded
- Wat Coventry City FC5–0
- Dvs Leeds United FC1–1
- Lat Chelsea FC3–4
- Wvs Aston Villa FC4–0
- Lvs Manchester United FC0–3
Arsenal FC
5W 0D 0L in the last 5 · 9 scored, 1 conceded
- Wat Sunderland AFC2–0
- Wat SSC Napoli1–0
- Wvs Chelsea FC2–1
- Wat Aston Villa FC1–0
- Wvs Coventry City FC3–0
Team news
Arsenal FC
- England squad announcement: Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta on Ben White recall, Gunners in the England squad and No
- Slavia Prague 1-2 Arsenal: Noni Madueke and Viktor Gyokeres on target as Gunners survive second-half scare
- Papers: Arteta using NASA to help fix Arsenal's injury woes
- Liverpool's unwanted record highlights creativity issue
Where to watch (UK)
Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 29 August 2026
Last updated: 19 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
Premier League
Hull City AFC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC
Home
20%
Draw
22%
Away
58%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 57%BTTS: 55%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League
Brentford FC vs Everton FC
Home
51%
Draw
27%
Away
22%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 40%BTTS: 43%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League
Coventry City FC vs Ipswich Town FC
Home
40%
Draw
21%
Away
39%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 75%BTTS: 74%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.