Premier League
AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest FC
Home
62%
Draw
21%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 52%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League · Matchweek 11
Aston Villa FC vs Sunderland AFC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 (GMT)
- Competition
- Premier League
- Round
- Matchweek 11
- Venue
- Villa Park, Birmingham, England
United Matchday prediction
Aston Villa FC win59%
Draw21%
Sunderland AFC win20%
- Predicted score
- 2–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 38%
- BTTS yes
- 59%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 83%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 40%
- BTTS no
- 41%
- Expected goals
- 2.08 – 1.14
Medium confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Sunderland AFC have conceded at a higher rate away from home than the competition average. The model expects a relatively open scoring environment in this match. Recent results also favour Aston Villa FC, whose points-per-match rate over the last five games is above average.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.5%
- 2–08.7%
- 1–08.3%
- 3–16.8%
- 3–06.0%
- 2–25.6%
- 1–25.4%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Aston Villa FC | Sunderland AFC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| Goals per match | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| Home / away goals scored | 6 | 6 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 7 | 13 |
| Last 5 points | 9 | 4 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 10 | 2 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 8 | 7 |
| Win percentage | 30% | 20% |
Aston Villa FC recent form
DWWDD
Sunderland AFC recent form
LLDLW
Recent form
Aston Villa FC
2W 2D 1L in the last 5 · 10 scored, 10 conceded
- Dat Manchester United FC4–4
- Lat Barcelona0–3
- Dvs Fulham FC1–1
- Wvs Manchester City FC2–1
- Wvs Viking FK3–1
Sunderland AFC
1W 1D 3L in the last 5 · 2 scored, 7 conceded
- Wvs Chelsea FC1–0
- Lat Coventry City FC1–3
- Dvs Leeds United FC0–0
- Lat AFC Bournemouth0–2
- Lvs Brighton & Hove Albion FC0–2
Team news
Where to watch (UK)
Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 31 October 2026
Last updated: 13 November 2026
Status: Live
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
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Draw
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Away
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Draw
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Draw
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.