Premier League
AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest FC
Home
62%
Draw
21%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 52%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League · Matchweek 4
Aston Villa FC vs Nottingham Forest FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Premier League
- Round
- Matchweek 4
- Venue
- Villa Park, Birmingham, England
United Matchday prediction
Aston Villa FC win32%
Draw29%
Nottingham Forest FC win39%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 61%
- BTTS yes
- 46%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 66%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 19%
- BTTS no
- 54%
- Expected goals
- 1.06 – 1.20
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Aston Villa FC have scored at a below-average rate at home, which limits the model's home goal expectation. Statistically the two sides are closely matched, so the draw probability stays comparatively high. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.5%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–010.4%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–27.5%
- 2–17.1%
- 2–05.9%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Aston Villa FC | Nottingham Forest FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| Goals per match | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.70 | 1.30 |
| Home / away goals scored | 6 | 6 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 7 | 9 |
| Last 5 points | 9 | 4 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 10 | 5 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 8 | 8 |
| Win percentage | 30% | 20% |
Aston Villa FC recent form
DWWDD
Nottingham Forest FC recent form
LLDLW
Recent form
Aston Villa FC
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 5 scored, 8 conceded
- Wat Club Brugge KV3–2
- Dat Hull City AFC0–0
- Lvs Arsenal FC0–1
- Lat Brighton & Hove Albion FC0–4
- Wat Manchester City FC2–1
Nottingham Forest FC
0W 3D 2L in the last 5 · 5 scored, 7 conceded
- Dvs Tottenham Hotspur FC0–0
- Dat Liverpool FC2–2
- Lvs Leeds United FC0–1
- Dvs AFC Bournemouth1–1
- Lat Manchester United FC2–3
Team news
Where to watch (UK)
Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 23 August 2026
Last updated: 12 September 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
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Hull City AFC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC
Home
20%
Draw
22%
Away
58%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 57%BTTS: 55%
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Home
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Draw
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Away
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Coventry City FC vs Ipswich Town FC
Home
40%
Draw
21%
Away
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.