Premier League
AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest FC
Home
62%
Draw
21%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 52%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League · Matchweek 6
Aston Villa FC vs Brentford FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 (BST)
- Competition
- Premier League
- Round
- Matchweek 6
- Venue
- Villa Park, Birmingham, England
United Matchday prediction
Aston Villa FC win24%
Draw24%
Brentford FC win52%
- Predicted score
- 1–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- BTTS yes
- 53%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 76%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 29%
- BTTS no
- 47%
- Expected goals
- 1.05 – 1.68
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
The model sees Aston Villa FC's home attacking output as weaker than the Premier League baseline. Brentford FC carry an above-average away scoring record into the fixture. Brentford FC arrive in stronger recent form, which the model weights alongside season-long numbers. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.2%
- 1–06.8%
- 0–06.5%
- 2–16.0%
- 1–35.4%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Aston Villa FC | Brentford FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 1.30 | 1.40 |
| Goals per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.70 | 1.10 |
| Home / away goals scored | 6 | 6 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 7 | 8 |
| Last 5 points | 9 | 5 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 10 | 6 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 8 | 7 |
| Win percentage | 30% | 30% |
Aston Villa FC recent form
DWWDD
Brentford FC recent form
DLDWL
Recent form
Aston Villa FC
2W 1D 2L in the last 5 · 7 scored, 7 conceded
- Wat Tottenham Hotspur FC3–2
- Lvs Nottingham Forest FC1–2
- Wat Club Brugge KV3–2
- Dat Hull City AFC0–0
- Lvs Arsenal FC0–1
Brentford FC
2W 3D 0L in the last 5 · 10 scored, 4 conceded
- Wvs Chelsea FC3–0
- Dat AFC Bournemouth2–2
- Dvs Sunderland AFC1–1
- Dat Leeds United FC1–1
- Wvs Tottenham Hotspur FC3–0
Team news
Where to watch (UK)
Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 19 September 2026
Last updated: 10 October 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
Related predictions
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Hull City AFC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC
Home
20%
Draw
22%
Away
58%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 57%BTTS: 55%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League
Brentford FC vs Everton FC
Home
51%
Draw
27%
Away
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- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 40%BTTS: 43%
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Coventry City FC vs Ipswich Town FC
Home
40%
Draw
21%
Away
39%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 75%BTTS: 74%
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.