Premier League
AFC Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest FC
Home
62%
Draw
21%
Away
17%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 55%BTTS: 52%
Medium confidenceFull prediction
Premier League · Matchweek 6
Arsenal FC vs Leeds United FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 10 Oct, 12:30 (BST)
- Competition
- Premier League
- Round
- Matchweek 6
- Venue
- Emirates Stadium, London, England
United Matchday prediction
Arsenal FC win54%
Draw25%
Leeds United FC win21%
- Predicted score
- 1–0
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 54%
- BTTS yes
- 48%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 72%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 25%
- BTTS no
- 52%
- Expected goals
- 1.62 – 0.91
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Home scoring numbers favour Arsenal FC, who have created goals at an above-average rate in front of their own crowd. Leeds United FC have defended well on the road, conceding less often than the average travelling side. Arsenal FC's home defensive record is tighter than the competition average, which suppresses the away goal expectation. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.9%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.0%
- 0–17.3%
- 3–05.7%
- 1–25.3%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Arsenal FC | Leeds United FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 10 | 10 |
| Points per match | 2.70 | 1.40 |
| Goals per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| Home / away goals scored | 10 | 3 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 2 | 5 |
| Last 5 points | 15 | 5 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 7 | 3 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 1 | 5 |
| Win percentage | 90% | 30% |
Arsenal FC recent form
WWWWW
Leeds United FC recent form
LDDLW
Recent form
Arsenal FC
4W 0D 1L in the last 5 · 6 scored, 4 conceded
- Lat Brighton & Hove Albion FC0–3
- Wat Sunderland AFC2–0
- Wat SSC Napoli1–0
- Wvs Chelsea FC2–1
- Wat Aston Villa FC1–0
Leeds United FC
2W 3D 0L in the last 5 · 7 scored, 3 conceded
- Dvs Crystal Palace FC0–0
- Wvs Newcastle United FC4–1
- Dat Brighton & Hove Albion FC1–1
- Dvs Brentford FC1–1
- Wat Nottingham Forest FC1–0
Team news
Arsenal FC
- England squad announcement: Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta on Ben White recall, Gunners in the England squad and No
- Slavia Prague 1-2 Arsenal: Noni Madueke and Viktor Gyokeres on target as Gunners survive second-half scare
- Papers: Arteta using NASA to help fix Arsenal's injury woes
- Liverpool's unwanted record highlights creativity issue
Where to watch (UK)
Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 12:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 19 September 2026
Last updated: 10 October 2026
Status: Locked
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 1000
- 1X2 accuracy
- 49.4%
- BTTS accuracy
- 55.9%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.6%
- Exact score
- 10.3%
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Hull City AFC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC
Home
20%
Draw
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Away
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- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 57%BTTS: 55%
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Draw
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Away
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Draw
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Away
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Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.