Premier League
Manchester United FC vs Tottenham Hotspur FC
Home
69%
Draw
20%
Away
12%
- Predicted score: 2–0Over 2.5: 52%BTTS: 44%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Premier League · Matchweek 6
Arsenal FC vs Leeds United FC Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 10 Oct, 12:30 (BST)
- Competition
- Premier League
- Round
- Matchweek 6
- Venue
- Emirates Stadium, London, England
United Matchday prediction
Arsenal FC win54%
Draw25%
Leeds United FC win21%
- Predicted score
- 1–0
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 54%
- BTTS yes
- 48%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 72%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 25%
- BTTS no
- 52%
- Expected goals
- 1.62 – 0.91
Low confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
Home scoring numbers favour Arsenal FC, who have created goals at an above-average rate in front of their own crowd. Leeds United FC have defended well on the road, conceding less often than the average travelling side. Arsenal FC's home defensive record is tighter than the competition average, which suppresses the away goal expectation. Sample size is still small this season, so the model leans more heavily on longer-term ratings and lowers its confidence accordingly.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.9%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.0%
- 0–17.3%
- 3–05.7%
- 1–25.3%
Team comparison
| Statistic | Arsenal FC | Leeds United FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 5 | 5 |
| Points per match | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Home / away goals scored | 5 | 2 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 1 | 1 |
| Last 5 points | 12 | 9 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 8 | 7 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 4 | 3 |
| Win percentage | 80% | 40% |
Arsenal FC recent form
WWWWL
Leeds United FC recent form
WDDWD
Recent form
Arsenal FC
4W 0D 1L in the last 5 · 6 scored, 4 conceded
- Lat Brighton & Hove Albion FC0–3
- Wat Sunderland AFC2–0
- Wat SSC Napoli1–0
- Wvs Chelsea FC2–1
- Wat Aston Villa FC1–0
Leeds United FC
2W 3D 0L in the last 5 · 7 scored, 3 conceded
- Dvs Crystal Palace FC0–0
- Wvs Newcastle United FC4–1
- Dat Brighton & Hove Albion FC1–1
- Dvs Brentford FC1–1
- Wat Nottingham Forest FC1–0
Team news
Arsenal FC
- Kai Havertz returning to Arsenal to be assessed after suffering injury for Germany against Netherlands
- Transfer rumors, news: Arsenal want Yildiz as Al Hilal add Martinelli to short list
- Arsenal starlet Max Dowman to link up with England senior squad after mass withdrawals - Paper Talk
- Mykhailo Mudryk preferred Arsenal move before £88m Chelsea transfer - Paper Talk
Where to watch (UK)
Premier League matches are typically shown in the UK by Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Amazon Prime Video (selected rounds), BBC Match of the Day (highlights). Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 12:30 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Saturday 15:00 UK kick-offs are not broadcast live in the UK.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 19 September 2026
Last updated: 29 September 2026
Status: Live
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 510
- 1X2 accuracy
- 46.9%
- BTTS accuracy
- 57.5%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.8%
- Exact score
- 10.6%
Related predictions
Premier League
Coventry City FC vs Newcastle United FC
Home
16%
Draw
20%
Away
64%
- Predicted score: 0–2Over 2.5: 60%BTTS: 55%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Premier League
Leeds United FC vs Manchester United FC
Home
53%
Draw
24%
Away
22%
- Predicted score: 1–0Over 2.5: 50%BTTS: 51%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Premier League
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Crystal Palace FC
Home
75%
Draw
15%
Away
10%
- Predicted score: 2–0Over 2.5: 67%BTTS: 52%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.