Eredivisie
NEC vs Fortuna Sittard
Home
34%
Draw
21%
Away
45%
- Predicted score: 1–1Over 2.5: 71%BTTS: 71%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Eredivisie · Matchweek 11
AFC Ajax vs AZ Prediction
Match essentials
- Kick-off (UK)
- Sat 31 Oct, 20:00 (GMT+0)
- Competition
- Eredivisie
- Round
- Matchweek 11
- Venue
- To be confirmed
United Matchday prediction
AFC Ajax win45%
Draw21%
AZ win34%
- Predicted score
- 2–1
- Over 2.5 goals
- 74%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 26%
- BTTS yes
- 73%
- Over 1.5 goals
- 90%
- Over 3.5 goals
- 54%
- BTTS no
- 27%
- Expected goals
- 2.07 – 1.81
Medium confidence
Why the model favours this outcome
The model rates AFC Ajax's home scoring output above the Eredivisie average. AZ have defended well on the road, conceding less often than the average travelling side. Combined attacking and defensive numbers point toward a higher-scoring game than average. AZ arrive in stronger recent form, which the model weights alongside season-long numbers.
Most likely scorelines
- 2–18.0%
- 1–17.7%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–27.0%
- 3–15.5%
- 3–25.0%
- 2–04.4%
- 2–34.4%
Team comparison
| Statistic | AFC Ajax | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| Matches played | 7 | 6 |
| Points per match | 1.71 | 2.17 |
| Goals per match | 2.86 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.43 | 1.17 |
| Home / away goals scored | 11 | 5 |
| Home / away goals conceded | 9 | 4 |
| Last 5 points | 8 | 10 |
| Last 5 goals scored | 14 | 10 |
| Last 5 goals conceded | 8 | 7 |
| Win percentage | 43% | 67% |
AFC Ajax recent form
LWWDD
AZ recent form
WWDWL
Recent form
AFC Ajax
2W 2D 1L in the last 5 · 14 scored, 8 conceded
- Dvs NEC1–1
- Dvs SBV Excelsior2–2
- Wvs Willem II Tilburg5–1
- Wat Fortuna Sittard5–1
- Lvs PSV1–3
AZ
3W 1D 1L in the last 5 · 10 scored, 7 conceded
- Lat Feyenoord Rotterdam0–2
- Wvs Telstar 19631–0
- Dvs Willem II Tilburg1–1
- Wat SC Heerenveen3–2
- Wvs Go Ahead Eagles5–2
Where to watch (UK)
Eredivisie matches are typically shown in the UK by Premier Sports. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 20:00 UK time. Always check the official listing for this fixture, as rights and selections change round by round.
Model transparency
Model: UM Prediction Model v1.0
Generated: 10 October 2026
Last updated: 10 October 2026
Status: Live
Prediction record
- Matches predicted
- 567
- 1X2 accuracy
- 46.7%
- BTTS accuracy
- 56.8%
- Over 2.5 accuracy
- 58.0%
- Exact score
- 10.9%
Related predictions
Eredivisie
FC Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle
Home
46%
Draw
19%
Away
35%
- Predicted score: 2–2Over 2.5: 82%BTTS: 79%
Low confidenceFull prediction
Predictions are statistical estimates for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain and no prediction is guaranteed.